Duufaanka Geeska: Isbedello Iyo Isdiidooyin (Dhammaystiran)

Published on Aug 12 2018 // Warar

Kamaal Marjaan

Xiisadaha siyaasadeed, nabadgelyo darrada iyo xasilooni la’aanta dhaqaale iyo diblumaasiyadeed ee uu gobalka Geeska Afrika lahaystaha u yahay, waxa ay buro ku noqdeen sawirkiisa siyaasadeed iyo muuqaalkiisa guud, waxa aanay abuureen isbedello iyo isdiiddooyin sida fooraha hadba jiho ka imanaya. Taas oo mararka qaarkood ay adagtahayba in aynu si run ah u odorosi karno suurtagalnimada in gobalku uu ka bogsado boogaha mililka yeeshay ee abid hagardaamada ku ahaa horusocodkiisa, midnimadiisa siyaasadeed iyo xitaa is raacsanaantiisa dhuleed.

Tusaale ahaan, soddon sano ka hor cidina ma’ay filayn go’itaankii Ereteriya, madaxbannaanidii Koonfurta suudaan iyo in Soomaaliya ay noqon doonto dawlad Federaal ah oo ay maamul-gobaleedyadu baarqab yihiin, goballadii woqooyina ay ka dhismi doonto Somaliland oo dawladnimo iyo nidaam maamul oo ay u madaxbannaantahay. Waa laga yaabaa in lagu doodi karo in kala go’a dalalkani uu xal u yahay dhibaato ka timi wadajirkii siyaasadeed oo suurtageli waayey. laakiin waxa ay weli saadaal aan fiicnayn u tahay sida ay u adagtahay in dalalkani ay yeeshaan wada noolaanshiye dhaqaale iyo iskaashi horumar, xitaa haddii ay noqonayso iyaga oo kala madaxbannaan.

Iyada oo ay waxaas oo dhami jiraan, haddana marnaba quus lagama joogo suurtagalnimada in xidhiidh dhaqaale iyo iskaashi horumar keenaa uu dhexmaro dalalka Geeska Afrika, iyo in uu dhaco isbeddel dalalkan ologga ah u fududeeya in ay irmaansadaan khayraadkooda ceegaaga, lana jaanqaadaan horumarka dunidu u hayaantay. Taas oo Ifafaalaheedu aad u soo muuqdo intii uu talada dalka Itoobiya qabtay raysalwasaare Abiy Axmed, oo isbedello saamaynta iyo xawliga duufaanka leh ku soo biiriyey saaxadda siyaasadda iyo diblumaasiyadda gobalka ee fadhiidka ahayd.

Abiy Axmed oo la aaminsan yahay in uu dhabartaabasho ka haysto dawladda Maraykanka iyo dalalka kale ee reer galbeedka, ayaa isbedello illaa gunta ah ah ku samaynaya dabeecaddii siyaasadeed iyo nidaamkii talo ee dalkiisa iyo diblumaasiyadda gobalka Geeska Afrika. Waxaa xiise gaar ah leh, in colaaddii guunka ahayd ee Itoobiya iyo Eriteriya uu maalmo yar gudahood u beddelay saaxiibtinimo ku sii siqaysa iskaashi Istaraatijiyadeed. Isaga oo durbadiiba bilaabay dadaallo uu doonayo in dalkan ay deriska yihiin laga qaado cunaqabatayntii ay qaramada Midoobey saartay. Taas oo u muuqata in ay daarantahay laba sababood oo isbarkan:

–          In Itoobiya ay hesho marin biyood u soo labeeya Jabbuuti, oo aan sida dekedaha Mombasa, Soomaaliya iyo Somaliland uga baahanayn dhaqaale buuran oo ku baxa dhismaha dekedda, jidadka, nabadgelyada, diyaarinta shaqaalaha iyo dhammaystirka kaabayaasha loo baahan yahay.

–          In Maraykanka uu helo jid uu u maro dalka Eriteriya oo uu danaynayo istaraatijiyaddiisa dhinaca badda.

–          Imaaraadka Carabta ayaa isna si weyn u danaynaya dekeda Ereteriya oo uu imikaba joogo. Waxa ay dhinac ahaan isku dan ka yihiin Maraykanka, dhinaca kalana joogitaankiisa xeebaha Ereteriya waxa ay kaalin weyn ka qaadanaysaa ammaanka qarankiisa, xoojinta dagaalka ay Imaaraadka iyo xulafadiisu kaga jiraan Yemen iyo  dano ganacsi.

Itoobiya waxaa ka socda korriin dhaqaale oo ah kan ugu xawaaraha badan Afrika iyo inta badan ee dunida, sida ay hay’adda lacagta adduunka ee IMF saadaalinaysana, sannadkan oo keliya waxa uu kordhayaa qiyaas ah boqolkiiba 8 iyo badh. Sidaa awgeed si ay uga feejignaato in nasiibdarrada bad la’aanta ee haysataa ay dabarto horumarkeeda, waa in ay heshaa dekedo ka badan laba iyo saddexba.

Talisyadii kala dambeeyey ee Itoobiya, weligoodba waa ay dareensanaayeen muhiimadda ay dekeduhu u leeyihin. Laakiin Abiy Axmed, waxa uu dekedahaas raadintooda u adeegsanayaa xeelad ka duwan tii uu dalkiisu hore u mari jiray; waxa uu markan rabaa in uu iskaashi iyo danwadaag la yeesho dalalka gobalka ee dekedaha leh. Waxa uu hore heshiisyo ula galay Jabbuuti, Suudaan, Kenya iyo Soomaaliya, ka horna waxa jiray heshiis Itoobiya kula jirto Somaliland iyada oo dhowaanna ku soo biiray heshiiska Ereteriya oo dekeddeedu noqonayso tan labaad ee isticmaalkeedu ugu soo dhaqsan karo marka Jabbuuti laga yimaaddo.

Taakada ugu culus ee maanta hortaalla danahaas isbarkan ee ay Maraykanka, Imaaraadka Carabta iyo Itoobiya ka leeyihiin Ereteriya, waxa ay noqotay cunaqabataynta Qaramada Midoobey ee saaran dalkaas oo diidaysa xidhiidhada iyo heshiisyada ay la geli lahaayeen. Waxaa muuqata in Raysalwasaare Abiy Axmed ay labada saaxiib ee kale u igmadeen in uu qodaxdaas jidka ka duwo. Taas oo ay Itoobiya dadaalkeeda ku jirto, iyada oo ka faa’iidaysanaysa xubinnimadeeda imika ee kursiga kaltanka ah ee golaha ammaanka Qaramada. Laakiin kursigaasi kelidii kuma uu filnaan, oo waxaa qasab noqotay in qaadista cunaqabataynta taageero looga helo dalalka kale ee gobalka, gaar ahaan dalalka IGAD oo marka horeba dhibta ka dhex dhacday qaar iyaga ka mid ah iyo Ereteriya ay ahayd sababta ugu muhiimsan ee Ereteriya cunaqabataynta loo saaray. Madaxweynaha Ereteriya oo dhiirrigelin ka helaya saddexdan saaxiib ayaa xodxodasho ka dhex bilaabay Bariga Afrika, dadaal uu doonayo in uu ku helo taageeradooda si cunaqabataynta looga qaado.

Soomaaliya oo madaxweynaheedu saddex dharaarood marti u ahaa madaxweyne Isaias Afawerki, ayaa noqday hoggaamiyihii labaad dalalka IGAD, ee ku baaqay in Ereteriya cunaqabataynta laga qaado. Waxa aanay u eegtahay in Itoobiya oo uu raysalwasaaraheedu dhowaan Muqdisho booqday iyo Maraykanku ay madaxweyne Farmaajo ku qanciyeen in uu taageero dadaalkan. Kenya iyo Ereteriya iyaga marka horeba xidhiidhkoodu ma’ uu xumaan, waana suurtagal in maalmaha soo socda labada dal laga arko dhaqdhaqaaq diblumaasiyadeed oo qaadista cunaqabataynta la xidhiidha.

JABBUUTI

Ereteriya in lagu soo celiyo xayndaabka Bariga Afrika iyo beesha caalamku cidda ugu badan ee ay walaaca ku haysaa waa dalka Jabbuuti oo colaad dhinaca xuduudka ahi u dhexeysay sannadihii u dambeeyey, dhul ay leedahay iyo maxaabiis ciidanna ku jiraaan gacanta Ereteriya. Waxa kale oo ay Jabbuuti ka xumaan kartaa in Itoobiya oo muddadii ay colaaddu u dhexeysay Ereteriya, boqolkiiba 95 waxa ay dibadda ka soo dejisato soo marisa dekedda Jabbuuti ay hadda kaddib ugu yarana u qaybin doonto Jabbuuti iyo Casab oo Ereteriya ah.

Isla markii fooraha isbeddelku bilowday, ayaa Jabbuuti ay isku dayday in aan cidlo lagaga tegin, waxa aanay Qaramada Midoobey ka dalbatay in la heshiisiiyo iyada iyo Ereteriya, laakiin cidi ma dhegeysan. Iyada oo ay taasi taagan tahay ayaa uu soo baxay baaqa Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya ee ah in cunaqabataynta laga qaado Ereteriya. Tallaabadas oo ay aad uga xumaatay dawladda Jabbuuti. Waxa ay filaysay xidhiidhka isirka ah iyo ciidamada ka jooga Soomaaliya, oo lagu daray shirarkii dawlad-dhiska ahaa ee ay Soomaalida u qabatay, in ay noqon doonaan abaal Soomaaliya ku qasba in ay maanta garab istaagto, laakiin ay u aragto in ay ku hungawday.

Waxaa meel xun maraya xidhiidhka Jabbuuti ay la leedahay dalka Imaaraadka Carabta oo kaalin weyn ku leh isbeddelladan ka socda gobalka. Sida oo kale Maraykanka oo isagu saldhig ciidan oo muhiim ah ku leh Jabbuuti ayaa aan la dhacsanayn in madaxweyne Geelle uu saldhig milateri siiyo dalka Shiinaha oo loollan weyni u dhexeeyo. In laba ka mid ah saddexda saaxiib ee Ereteriya aanay ka raalli ahayn Jabbuuti, waxa ay meesha ka saari kartaa fursaddii ay Jabbuuti kaga hortegi kari lahayd in duufaanka isbeddel ee socdaa uu danaheeda burburiyo. Waxaa intaa dheer khatarta ka iman karta siyaasadda labagardaaqa ah, ee ay Jabbuuti dalkeeda isugu keentay quwadadha is diiddan. Taas oo Inkasta oo ay ka heshay faa’iido dhaqaale iyo dano siyaasadeed, haddana ugu dambaynta iyada isku rogi karta.

Si kastaba ha ahaato ee, halka imika la joogo, muhiimadda dalka Jabbuuti weli waa ay ka xoog badan tahay in sidaa kediska ah loo baalmaro, waana suurtagal in waxa socdaa uu yahay keliya in la baraqnugleeyo, ugu dambayntana ay dhacdo in Jabbuuti la siiyo dammaanado ugu yaraan cabsida ay qabto dejiya. Lagana shaqeeyo sidii uu madaxweyne Geelle u raaci lahaa geeddiga socda. Inkasta oo ay arrintani u baahan tahay in dano badan laga wadahadlo, oo ay ugu horreyso in wax la iska yidhaahdo xidhiidhka Jabbuuti iyo Ereteriya, iyo in la dejiyo cadhada uu Imaaraadku u qabo Jabbuuti, haddana in walaaca Jabbuuti la bogsiiyo waxaa muhiim ka sii dhigaya, Jabbuuti oo ah xarunta urur gobaleedka IGAD ee hadda kaddib bu’da u noqon doona shaqada soo xero-gelinta iyo cunaqabatayn ka qaadista Ereteriya, ee maalmaha soo socda bilaabmaya.

Dalka Jabbuuti waxa uu gobalka iyo dunidaba u leeyahay muhiimad istaraatijiyadeed oo dhinaca dhaqaalaha iyo ammaankaba taabanaysa. Jabbuuti iyo Yemen ayaa ah labada dal ee ugu dhow marinbiyoodka Baabul Mandab, oo leh muhiimad dhuleed, siyaasadeed, dhaqaale iyo ciidan, ahna marinka ugu muhiimsan ee isku xidha qaaradaha Yurub iyo Aasiya. Laakiin xaalka siyaasadeed ee imika ka jira Jabbuuti oo ay ugu horreyso; Quwadaha kala danaha ah ee ay isu keentay, xidhiidhka aan fiicnayn ee ay la leedahay dalalka duufaanka Geesku danta u yahay iyo dhaqanka xukun ku dhegga iyo isbeddel la’aanta ah ee ka jira, ayaa ka dhigaya dal aan sidii la rabay ugu gorgortami karin muhiimaddiisa, waaba haddii uu ka badbaado in duufaanku uu jiidho ee.

Waxaa qalad siyaasiya ahaa in dawladda Jabbuuti ay si degdeg ah u taageertay isbahaysigii Carabta ee go’doonka geliyey dalka Qatar, iyada oo aan ka fikirin danaha ay ku waayi karaysay oo ay ugu horreysay in dalka Qatar ciidamadiisu ay ahaayeen kuwa ku dhex jira Jabbuuti iyo Ereteriya. Waana tii sababta u noqotay in Qatar ay ciidamadeeda kala baxdo xuduudka, kaddibna dalka Ereteriya uu si degdeg ah u qabsado dhul dheeraad ah oo ay Jabbuuti leedahay. Waxa kale oo qalad kaas hore ka sii weyn ahaa, in Jabbuuti ay haddana si degdeg ah isugu dhacaan dalka Imaaraadka Carabta oo ah kan ugu xarakaadka badnaa xulafadii Qatar ka soo horjeedday, labadaa tallaabo ee ay Jabbuuti israacisay waxa ay si isku mid ah uga wada fogeysay dalalkii muhiimka u ahaa ee carabta oo ay marka hore xidhiidh aad u fiican la lahaan jirtay. Waxaa maanta la gudboon Jabbuuti in ay casharkaas hore wax ka barato oo ay mar kale ka taxaddarto in duufaanka hadda socda ay la jaanqaadi kari weydo, oo ay cadow cusub ku samaysato.

Si kastaba ha ahaato ee madaxweyne Geelle waxa uu weli haystaa fursad uu dalkiisa kaga badbaadin karo duufaanka dhacaya, waxa aana ugu horreeya in uu adkeeyo xidhiidhka uu la leeyahay Itoobiya, in uu ka shaqeeyo sidii ay u dhammaan lahayd colaadda ka dhaxaysa Ereteriya ama ugu yaraan loo suurin lahaa, iyo in uu dejiyo khilaafka u dhexeeya dalka Imaaraadka Carabta. Waxa kale oo meesha ku jirta sida uu u soo dhoweysto Maraykanka oo isbeddelka socda lug weyn ku leh. Waxa iyaduna talo muhiima ah in uu mar kale ka fikiro isku wadka quwadaha is diiddan ee uu isu keenay iyo in talada dalka uu furfuro, gacanta dadkana ku soo celiyo si aanay u lumin is midnimada iyo xasiloonida guduhu.

 MARAYKANKA

 Maraykanku raalli kama uu ahayn saldhigga ciidan ee uu Shiinuhu ka samaystay Jabbuuti oo uu isagu hore ugu lahaa. Mana sii eegan karo in ay sii socoto saamaynta Shiinaha ee gobalkan muhiimka ah ku soo badanaysa. Sidaa awgeed xidhiidh uu Maraykanku la samaysto Ereteriya waxa uu Shiinaha kaga caabbin karaa in uu gaadho xeebaha Ereteriya iyo in uu badda cas si buuxda u hantiyo. Isaga oo maanka ku haya in Berbera oo ah furdad muhiim ah oo badda cas ku taallaa ay sida oo kale ka xidhan tahay Shiinaha, maadaama oo Imaaraadka oo Maraykanka la xulafo ahi deggen yahay.

Shiinuhu waxa uu muddo ku hawlanyahay qorshe uu ku samaynay jid ganacsiyeed lagu magacaabo Jidka xariirta ah ee Shiinaha, kaas oo la doonayo in uu noqdo jid isku xidha Shiinaha, iyo dalal muhiimka ah ee Aasiya, qaarad la mooddo Hindiya, Iiraan, Yurub, dalalka Carabta iyo Geeska Afrika. Jidkaas oo bad iyo berriba marayaa waxa uu qorshuhu yahay in uu soo maro badda cas oo uu ka soo gelayo jihada woqooyi ee Masar, soona marayo marinbiyoodka Baabu-mandab, isaga oo ku dhowaanaya Ereteriya, Jabbuuti iyo Somaliland oo ugu durugsan, illaa uu u soo gudbo badweynta Hindiya oo la filayo in uu magaalada Muqdisho ku baydho ama ku dhowaado, kaddibna Nairobi tago.

Cunaqabataynta hubka oo laga qaado Ereteriya, waxa ay dariiqa u bannaynaysaa iskaashi milateri oo uu Maraykanku la yeesho, waanay u dhowdahay in uu saldhig ka samaysto. In Ereteriya la soo dhoweystaa waa guux muddo ka dhex socday madalaha lagu go’aamiyo siyaasadda arrimaha dibadda Maraykanka, gaar ahaan xisbiga jamhuuriga dhexdiisa. Boqol maalmood ka yar ayaa laga joogaa markii iyada oo aanu Abiy Axmed weli isbeddelkan keenin, uu xildhibaan Dana Rohrabacher oo ah ruugcaddaa ka tirsan xisbiga talada haya ee jamhuurigu, warqad xidhiidhka Ereteriya ka hadlaysa u qorayey wasaaradda arrimaha dibadda ee Maraykanka.

Xildhibaan Dana Rohrabacher oo 30 kii sano ee u dambeeyeyna ka tirsanaa golaha wakiillada, waxa uu wasiirka arrimaha dibadda Michael Pompeo kula taliyey in Maraykanku uu xidhiidh adag la samaysto dalka Ereteriya, oo istaraatiyad muhiim ah leh. Lagana shaqeeyo sidii uu ula yeelan lahaa iskaashi milateri. Waxa uu si badheedh ah ugu dooday in ay taasi tahay tab fiican oo lagaga hortegi karo saamaynta soo kordhaysa ee uu Shiinuhu ku leeyahay gobalka, oo ay ka mid tahay saldhigga mialteri ee ay Jabbuuti siisay.

In Ereteriya ku soo noqoto saaxaddu waxa ay Maraykanka u leedahay dano kale oo ay ugu muhiimsan tahay in Iiraan uu ka ilaaliyo badda cas si uu u sugo danihiisa marin biyoodka baabu-mandab, isla markaana u adkeeyo nabadgelyada Israa’iil iyo xulafadiisa khaliijka.

ITOOBIYA 

Itoobiya waxa ay marka hore ku socon jirtay istaraatjiyad ah in cududdeeda ciidan ay hagto diblumaasiyaddeeda iyo xidhiidhadeeda, laakiin taasi waxa ay u abuurtay colaad badan iyo in ay dhexgeli kari weydo dalalka gobalka oo ay doonayso in ay iyadu hoggaamiso. Marka aynu eegno tallaabooyinka uu illaa hadda qaaday raysalwasaare Abiy Axmed, waxaa cad in uu jidkaas hore ka baydhay. Waxaa ka muuqda in uu tirtirayo wixii colaad iyo kala waabasho ahaa ee ka dhexeeyey dalkiisa iyo guud ahaanba dalalka bariga Afrika, waxa aanu bilaabay fikir ah in dano is dhaafsiga iyo dhaqaale wadaaggu uu noqdo ka hagaya diblumaasiyadda cusub ee Itoobiya, taas oo haddii uu ku guulaysto, ka dhigi doonta dal si laga raalli yahay caynaanka ugu qabta dalalka Geeska Afrika.

Itoobiya waa dalka ugu dhulka ballaadhan, ugu dadka badan, ugu dhaqaalaha buuran, ugu cududda weyn, dawladnimadeeduna ugu gun dheertahay, dhammaan dalalka Geeska Afrika. Arrimahaas oo dhammaantood ah furayaasha u soo jiidi kara horumarka, kana caawin kara in ay hoggaamiso Geeska.

Marka aynu soo ururinno, jidka cusub ee ay Itoobiya dooratay, waxa uu ka dhigi doono quwad diblumaasiyad qabow iyo xoog dhaqaale ku hoggaamisa gobalka Geeska Afrika iyo guud ahaan bariga qaaraddan. Marka ay sidaas tahay Itoobiya faa’iido aan la soo koobi karin ayaa uu u wadaa dufaanka isbeddel ee dhacayaa, waxa aana hubaal ah in tubta uu qaaday hoggaamiyahooda dhalinyarada ahi uu ka dhigi doono dal qaaradda iyo dunidaba meel sare ka gaadha, waa se haddii uu ka badbaado saddex isdiiddo oo aan la dhayalsan karin.

KURSIGA OO AANU KU DHEGIN 

Dhibta ugu badan ee Afrika ka taagani waa kala tagga weyn ee ku dhex jira da’da talinaysa iyo da’da dadka loo talinayo, tusaale ahaan da’da dadka Afrika celcelis ahaan waxa ay noqonaysaa 19 iyo badh sano jir, laakiin celceliska da’da hoggaamiyeyaashoodu waa 65 sano. In da’da talinaysaa ay u taliso jiilkii ay awoowga u noqon lahaydna waxa ay sababaysaa isla jaanqaadi waa iyo in uu meesha ka baxo xooggii cusbaa ee la qabsan kari lahaa duruufaha uu la noolyahay oo uu inta badan uga faham badan yahay cid kale oo kasta.

Waxaa iyaduna xusid mudan in Inta badan ee hoggaamiyeyaasha soo maray ama hadda jooga Afrika ay yihiin dad marka hore maamuus ku lahaa dalalkooda; iyaga oo da’ yar ayaa ay halgankii gobannimo doonka kaalin geesinimo iyo hoggaamineed ku lahaayeen ama markii ay xukunka qabteen ayaa ay horumar iyo isbeddello loo baahnaa keeneen, laakiin dhammaantood magacaas iyo maamuuskaas taariikhdooda waxa ay ku tirtireen habdhaqankoodii siyaasadeed ee dambe, kaddib markii ay diideen in xukunka uu ka kaxeeyo wax aan ahayn wed ama xoog ka awood badan.

Marka aynu eegno Itoobiya inkasta oo ay tahay dal guun ah, haddana waxa ay caan ku ahayd hoggaamiyeyaal boqortooyo iyo kuwo xukunka xoog ku haysta waqtiyo dhaadheer, waxaa u dambeeyey raysalwasaare, Meles Sinawi oo ahaa Abiy Axmed saaxiibkii ama macallinkiisii siyaasadda. Waxa uu xukunka Itoobiya magacyo kala duwan ku hayey 21 sano, isaga oo aan weli u diyaar ahayn in uu ka tagana waa uu geeriyooday. Raysalwasaare Abiy Axmed waa in uu ka feejignaadaa kursi ku dheg uu ku tirtiro taariikhdiisa, isla markaana abuura jawi ay kaga soo horjeestaan dadkiisu. Waa in uu dalka ka abuuro nidaam talowadaag ah oo xukunka lagu yimaaddo doonista dadka. Haddii kale sida hoggaamiyeyaashii ka horreeyey ee Afrika ayaa uu qoomi doonaa magaca uu ku helayo isbeddelka uu dalkiisa ka hirgeliyey.

QAWMIYADIYAHA

Waxaa aad u suurtagal ah in mid ka mid ah sababaha uu raysalwasaare Abiy Axmed u ogolaaday heshiiskii dhul u celinta Ereteriya, ay tahay in uu qaybiyo qawmiyadda Tikreega ee muddooyinkii u dambeeyey haysay talada, abuurtayna nidaam ay adagtahay in ay xukunka ka fogaato. Dhulka ay Itoobiya iyo Ereteriya ku muransan yihiin, sida uu dhigayo heshiiska uu imika ogolaaday raysawasaare Abiy Axmed, haddii dib loogu celiyo Ereteriya, dad aad u badan oo ka mid ah qawmiyadda Tigreegu waxa ay raaci doonaan Ereteriya. Waana xeelad uu Abiy Axmed ku yarayn karo xooggii qawmiyaddan ee culayska ku keeni lahaa nidaamka cusub ee uu damacsan yahay.

Qawmiyadda Oromada oo boqolkiiba 60 ay muslimiin yihiin, waa tan ugu badan qawmiyadaha dalka Itoobiya, waxa aana lagu qiyaasaa in ay ugu yarana boqolkiiba 40 ka tahay tirada guud ee dadka dalka. Nasiibdarro, hore tiradaas aadka u badani qawmiyadda Oromada uma ay saamixin in ay hoggaamiso Itoobiya. Waxa se laga yaabaa in aynu dhowaan maqalno Raysalwasaaer Abiy Axmed oo dastuurka dalka wax ka beddela, si uu u suurtageliyo in doorasho toos ah, ama si uun sida hadda ka duwan, uu ku yimaaddo hoggaamiyaha dalku. Waayo, waa sida keliya ee uu ku dammaanad qaadi karo in Oromadu ay xukunka Itoobiya qabato. Nidaamka imika jiraa waa baarlamaani, oo hoggaamiyaha la soo dooranayaa waxa ay ku xidhantahay hadba isbahaysiyada ka dhex jira baarlamaanka.

Qarnigii 16naad waxa ay Oromadu bartilmaameedkii ugu weynaa u ahayd addoonsigii lagu hayey dadka madow ee Afrika, intii ka dambaysayna waxa ay ku hoos nolaayeen talisyo kiristaan u badan oo cadaadiskii iyo cabudhintii ay kala kulmeen geyeysiisay in tiro badan oo ka mid ahi ay ka baxaan diinta Islaamka, iyo in dadka qawmiyaddani ay aad uga yaacaan Itoobiya oo ay daafaha dunida u kala tacabbiraan.

Waa arrin iska dabiici ah in dadku marka ay xorriyad iyo xoog helaan, ay bilaabaan in ay ka aargoostaan ciddii ay dhibaatada iyo cabudhinta ka tirsanayeen ama u arkayeen in ay u soo raacday ciddii dhibaatada ku haysay, waa se haddii aanay helin hoggaamiye karti leh oo xakamayn kara, si aanu aargoosi iyo is colaadsi u dhicin.

Itoobiya waa dal ay ku dhaqanyihiin qawmiyado aad u kala fog isir ahaan, badankoodana colaado guun ahi u dhexeeyaan. Nidaamkii Abiy Axmed ka horreeyey waxa uu dalkan ku hayey gacan bir ah oo keentay in wada noolaanshiyuhu uu qasab noqdo. Laakiin, isbeddellada uu raysalwasaaruhu wado, waxaa ka dhalanaya in Itoobiya ay noqoto dal aad u furfuran. Waxa aana hubaal ah in ay taasi keeni doonto in aanay is raacsanaanta dhuleed iyo midnimada bulsho sidii hore ahaan doonin iyo in amnigu dabci karo. Khatartaasi waxa ay barbar taallaaa dheefta aadka u badan ee ka dhalanaysa isbeddelka uu wado raysalwasaaruhu. In uu dhibtaas dalka ka badbaadiyaana waa ay ka bilaabmaysaa in uu ugu horreynba ka adkaado qawmiyaddiisa, oo ah tan ugu badan, lagana yaabo in ay uurkutaallada ugu badan qabto.

Waxa muuqata in raysalwasare Abiy Axmed qaatay qorshe ah in uu isbeddelkiisa ku kaxeeyo xawaaraha dabaysha. Waa qorshe sax ah marka la eego dal Itoobiya oo kale ah oo ay ka soo jirtay dawlad xididdo aasatay oo cid gaar ah u xidhay dhammaan hay’adihii xoogga lahaa ee qaranka; dhaqaalaha, nabadgelyada iyo siyaasaddaba. In uu isbeddelkiisu noqdo sida dubbe uu madaxa kaga garaacayo maska, si aanu u helin fursad uu ku soo kacaa, waa xeelad fiican oo uu kaga badbaadi karayey cid kasta oo laga yaabo in ay ka hor iman lahayd. Waxa aanay fursad u siisay in uu masaafad aad u dheer jaro inta aanay gagabgoynin awooddii soo talinaysay, ee aanay wax iska weydiiyaan xukun hayntiisa. Waxa se muhiim ah in xawaaraha uu isbeddelkiisa ku wadaa aanu raysalwasaaraha illowsiinin muhiimadda ay leedahay wadashada ugu yaraan dadka aan la dhacsanayn ee weli talada xisbiga iyo tan dawladdaba awoodda ku leh, oo ay run tahay in ay fursad uun sugayaan, iyo in aanu illaawin in uu xukunka ku yimi sifo ku meelgaadh ah oo xal raadin iyo raalligelin looga dhigayey kacdoonnadii socday.

Wax badanina waxa ay xidhanyihiin, hadba sida uu siyaasadda gudaha u maamulo iyo sida ay dalalka imika Abiy Axmed garbaha hayaa ula sii wadaan hawsha.

SOOMAALIYA

Soomaaliya kama qadayso danaha ku jira jidka cusub ee uu gobalku qaaday; ugu horreyn waxa ay haysataa marinnada biyood ee Itoobiya u baahan tahay oo qaar badan oo ka mid ahi ay ku teedsan yihiin xuduudka. Itoobiya oo ku dhaqanta siyaasad ah iyada oo in uun xurmaynaysa Soomaaliya, dano ay is dhaafsanayaanna ay jiraan, in ay isticmaasho dekedahaas. Waxa ay aad uga fiicantahay sidii ay marka hore Soomaaliya ka baqaysay ama ay ku socotayba oo ahayd, in Itoobiya ay abaal la’aan ku isticmaasho dekedaha Soomaaliya.

Mar labaadka, Istaraatijiyaddii hore ee Itoobiya, waxa ku dhisnayd aragti daciifinaysa dawladda dhexe ee Muqdisho, korna u soo kicinaysa maamul-gobaleedyada iyo xoogagga siyaasiga ah ee hadba ka soo horjeeda dawladda. Haddaba, haddii ay run noqoto saadaasha ah in hadda kaddib, diblumaasiyadda Itoobiya ku socon doonto dano is dhaafsi ay la yeelato dalalka gobalka iyo in xooggeeda dhaqaale ay ku hoggaamiso diblumaasiyadda, waxaa yaraan doonta cabsidii ay ka qabtay Soomaaliya oo xoogaysata. Taasina waxa ay dawladda Federaalka Soomaaliya siin doontaa fursad, ay kaga badbaaddo culayskii kaga imanayey Addis Ababa, oo ay ugu horreyso maamul-gobaleeddadii ay ku naaxin jirtay.

Illaa hadda waxaa muuqata in Abiy Axmed uu jidkaas ku socdo, oo si ka duwan raggii ka horreeyey, uu isagu xoogga saarayo in uu xidhiidh toos ah la samaysto dawladda Federaalka Soomaaliya. Iyada oo la ogyahay in uu Muqdisho ku tegey, safar noqday markii ugu horreysay muddo soddon sano ku dhow, ee hoggaamiye dal kale uu booqasho ku yimaaddo Muqdisho, isaga oo ka jawaabaya casuumad rasmi ah oo uu diray madaxweyne Soomaaliya ka talinayaa.

Tegitaankii Farmaajo ee Ereteriya, ma’ uu ahayn sabab la’aan. Waxaa qasab ah in ay ka soo shaqaysay cid ka mid ah dalalka riixaya isbeddelka socda, gaar ahaan Maraykanka, Itoobiya iyo / ama Imaaraadka. In uu Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya tago Ereteriya, oo isaga oo aan u joojin cabashada Jabbuuti, uu ku dhawaaqo in dalkaas laga qaado cunaqabaynta, waa tallaabo ay hubaal tahay in ay soo dhoweyn doonto kala fogaanshiyihii Soomaaliya iyo dalka Isutagga Imaaraadka Carabta oo ka mid ah dalalka shookaanta u haya isbeddelka socda. Waxa aanay Soomaaliya ku kasbanaysaa in ay ugu yaraan qabowdo xiisaddii diblumaasiyadeed ee u dhexeysay iyo dagaalkii uu imaaraadka oo soo maraya mucaaradka Muqdisho ku hayey dawladda Farmaajo.

Waxaa iyaduna jirta in Farmaajo taageeradiisa qorshaha saddexda dawladood ee Ereteriya garab istaagay, uu ka dheefayo in Soomaaliya heerkeeda gobalku kor u soo kaco, heshiisyo iyo iskaashiyo kala duwanna ay la gasho dalalka gobalka, taas oo ah jid ay u mari karto in ay dib u soo ceshato kaalintii muhiimka ahayd ee ay gobalka ku lahaan jirtay.

In dalku uu fursado ka dhex helo dalalka la ologga ahi, waxa ay leedahay waxtar ay ugu yartahay, in uu door muhiim ah ka ciyaaro diblumaasiyadda gobalka iyo in uu galaangal u yeesho dalalka qaaraddiisa iyo dunidaba. Waana suurtagal in aynu aragno dalalka gobalka, oo markooda iyaguna ku baaqaya in Soomaaliya laga qaado cunaqabataynta hubka ee saaran.

Khatarta ugu weyn ee Soomaaliya ka soo waajahaysa isbeddelka ka socda gobalku waa, in laga faa’iidaysan karo taagdarradeeda iyo dib-u-dhaca jira. Tusaale ahaan in heshiisyada dawladaha ay la gelaysaa noqdaan kuwo ay ku dulman tahay oo aanay gorgortan badan ka geli karin, sababo la xidhiidha cabsida ay ka qabto farogelinta dalalkaas ama hay’adaha dawladda ee heshiisyadaas gelaya oo aan lahayn aqoontii iyo kartidii loo baahnaa, una bislayn gorgortanka ay u baahan yihiin heshiisyada dabeecaddaas lihi.

Dawladda Soomaaliya si ay uga badbaaddo heshiisyo lagu saxeexo kala sarrayn iyo sadbursi, waxaa la gudboon in ay dhaqso u diyaariso dhammaan shuruucda khusaysa maalgashiyada iyo heshiisyada caalamiga ah ee dhaqaalaha iyo iskaashiyada kale. Waxaa muhiim ah in ay keento waayo-arag iyo dad u diyaarsan heshiisyada caalamiga ah. Sida oo kale waxaa muhiim u ah in ay fursaddan uga faa’iidaysato dejinta xiisadda diblumaasiyadeed ee u dhexeysa dalka Imaaraadka Carabta oo wax badan yeeli karo danaheeda.

Waxaa iyaduna run ah in helitaanka Soomaaliya ee dheefahaas iyo danahaas aynu xusnay, uu ku xidhan yahay in Itoobiya ay si dhab ah u beddesho Istaraatijiyaddeeda guud ee ku jihaysan Soomaaliya, taas oo aan weli caddayn. Waayo, Itoobiya waxa ay weligeedba Soomaaliya ka lahayd, aragti iyo istaraatijiyad ku qotonta amniga qarankeeda. Sidaa awgeed tallaabooyinka uu illaa hadda Abiy Axmed qaaday, keliya waa calaamad niyadwanaag. Welina waxa aynu dhowraynaa shaqada xigta ee uu ka qabto istaraatijiyadda Itoobiya ee ku waajahan Soomaaliya, oo ka gun dheer, kana kakan in inta uu imika sameeyey ay noqoto mucjiso wixii jiray oo dhan xal u keenaysa.

Waxa iyaduna xusid mudan in taagdarrada dawladnimada Soomaaliya, iyo awooddii diblumaasiyadeed oo aan jirin, ay caqabad ku yihiin in Soomaaliya ay ku guulaysato isu soo jiidka danaha isdiiddan ee shisheeyaha iyada gacansiiya. Kuwaas oo ay ugu horreyaan Maraykanka iyo saaxiibkii (Imaaraadka) oo dhan ah iyo Turkiga iyo saaxiibkii (Qatar) oo dhanka kale ah, laguna sii dari karo Shiinaha oo isna hadda Soomaaliya iyo gobalkaba u soo heensaystay.

SOMALILAND 

Qaabkii dastuuriga ahaa ee uu madaxweyne Rayaale xilka ula wareegay dhimashadii Cigaal kaddib, iyo doorashooyinkii xigay, waxa ay Somaliland ku soo jeediyeen indhaha dunida. Gaar ahaan xilligaas oo ay Soomaaliya qarka u saarnayd in uu magaceedu tirtirmo. Sida oo kale, duruufihii ammaanka dunida ee xilligaas taagnaa, sida argagaxisada iyo budhcad badeedka, oo Soomaaliya iyo guud ahaan Geeska Afrika ahaayeen halka ay khatartooda ugu badani ka imanaysay, ayaa ay Somaliland ku kasbatay sumcad keentay in dunida ay ka hesho wada-shaqayn fiican.

Go’aankii uu madaxweyne Siilaanyo wadahadalka kula furay Soomaaliya, waxa uu daciifiyey ilayskii ugu weynaa ee diblumaasiyadda Somaliland, kaddib markii uu abuuray weji cusub oo ay dunidu Somaliland kula macaamisho. Waxa uu meesha ka saaray su’aashii ka taagnayd sida loo la macaamilayo Somaliland, taas oo Somaliland marar badan u noqon jirtay naruuro ay ku hesho hab macaamil aad u heer sarreeya. Wadahadalladu waxa ay dunida geliyeen rejo cusub, oo ah in ay ka soo bixi karto natiijo dib u soo celisa midnimada Soomaaliya, waxa aanay sababtay in Somaliland lagu cadaadiyo in jidka keliya ee u furani uu yahay in ay Soomaaliya isla meel dhigaan sida uu noqonayo masiirkoodu.

Somaliland muddadii ay jirtay marinka ay dibadda ugu gudubto, xadhiga ay sii mariso dano badan oo ay dunida ka rabto iyo saaxiibka ay weheshataa waxa uu ahaa dalka Itoobiya. Waxa ay ka haysatay wax aqoonsi u eeg, kaddib markii uu ogolaaday in ay Somaliland xafiis diblumaasiyadeed ka furato Addis Ababa iyo in baasaboorka Somaliland si la mid ah baasaboorrada kale ee dunida, uu ugu bixiyo dal-ku-galka.

Isbeddelka ka socda Geeska Afrika haddii uu u guulaysto sida uu socdo, waxa ay Somaliland halis u tahay in uu ka soo oodo marinkii diblumaasiyadeed ee Itoobiya oo aad muhiim ugu ah. Waxa kale oo uu cidhiidhi gelin karaa rajadii ahayd in Imaaraadka Carabtu uu marin kale u noqdo Somaliland. Waayo, taageerada uu Farmaajo siiyey qorshaha Itoobiya ee Ereteriya ku aaddan, oo lagu daro aragtida ah in xidhiidhka gobalku ku dhisnaado iskaashiga horumar, waa albaab adag oo soo xidhi kara diblumaasiyadda Somaliland.

Dambaabidhada qorshaha cusub ee raysalwasaare Abiy Axmed, haddii ay Jabbuuti dhaawacday, waxa uu sida oo kale daciifinayaa Somaliland, laakiin macnuhu ma’aha in uu ilayskii rejadu demay. Somaliland waxa ay u baahantahay in ay sida ugu dhaqsaha badan dib u habayn iyo xoojin ugu samayso siyaasaddeeda arrimaha dibadda, iyo in ay dardargeliso dhaqdhaqaaqyadeeda diblumaasiyadeed oo aanay ku hallayn wasiirka oo keliya, balse ay abuurto qorsheyaal cilmiyeysan iyo aragti xeeldheer oo hagta siyaasadda dibadda.

Waxaa weli u furan in ay ka faa’iideysato xidhiidhka Somaliland la leedahay dalalka Ingiriiska iyo Maraykanka oo labadaba ay ka muuqato in ay Somaliland danaynayaan, isla markaana ay xukuumadihii hore ee Somaliland xidhiidho fiican la bilaabeen. Waxa kale oo muhiim ah in ay ka shaqayso, sidii ay Abiy Axmed ugu qancin lahayd muhiimadda ay u leedahay ammaanka iyo horumarka dhaqaale Itoobiya, maadaama oo ay Itoobiya laftigeedu danaynayso dekedda Berbera. Dalka Imaaraadka Carabta oo ay imika xooggan tahay  diblumaasiyaddiisa Geeska Afrika, xidhiidh fiicanna la yeeshay Somaliland, ayaa isna ah fursad weli furan.

Siyaasiga xariifka ahi, waa ka marka ay xaaladdu ku soo fool adagtahay, iskaga qanca in uu jab roodhi ah qaato, marka uu isheeda arkana aanay qancin wax ka yar warshadda furinku. Waxaa muhiim ah in Somaliland ay ku xisaabtanto in Soomaaliya oo ka faa’iidaysanaysa isbeddelka cusubi ay cadaadis intii hore ka badan saarayso diblumaasiyadda Somaliland, sidaa awgeed Somaliland si aanay fursadaha u furan u dayicin waa in ay:

–          Dawladaha aynu soo xusnay ka codsato in Soomaaliya lagu cadaadiyo in ay culayska ka yareyso Somaliland. Gaar ahaan dhinacyada bani’aadamnimada, ammaanka, horumarka iyo dhaqaalaha.

–          Dawladahan ay ku qanciso, in inta wadahadallada Somaliland iyo Soomaaliya meel ku dhammaanayaan, Somaliland la siiyo jid diblumaasiyadeed ku meelgaadh ah, oo u suurtagelin kara in ay dunida u marto.

–          Cidhiidhsato sidii aan looga reebi lahayn horumarka iyo iskaashiyada dhaqaale ee ka alkunmaya Geeska Afrika, ugu yaraanna wixii iyada ka khuseeya ay wada xaajoodkooda kaalin ku yeelato.

–          Ka shaqayso in wadahadalladii ay dhaqso u bilowdaan, cid dhexdhexaadisa oo dhinacyada culays saari karta, isuna jiidi kartana la raadiyo. Sida oo kale, waa in ay wada hadallada ugu diyaargarowdo si ka cilmiyeysan, kana qorshe fiican, sidii ay yeeshay xukuumaddii madaxweyne Siilaanyo oo aynu ku tilmaami karno in ay martay jid guul-darraystay.

–          Ugu dambayn waa in ay niyadda ku hayso in midnimada gudaha ee Somaliland oo imika maqan iyo dawlad wanaaggu ay yihiin laba fure oo wanaajin kara siyaasadda arrimaha dibadda. Dhammaad

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