Dhibaatooyinka Dhaqaalaha Turkiga: Dagaal Reer-Galbeed mise Liicid Dhaqaale?

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 Qore: Sayid Gas 

Hordhac

Kadib doorasho xamaasad badan lahayd siwayna loogu hirdamay oo muddo ayku jeedeen indhaha shacabwaynaha reer Turki xiligan dalku wuxuu  galay hab maamul cusub oo madaxtooyo. Hadalhaynta ugubadan ee shacabka reer Turki iyo caalamka intiisa kalese hada maaha waxyaabaha laga filankaro nidaamkan cusub ee Turkigu u guuray. Waxaase indhuhu kujeesteen xanuuno cusub oo lagu arkay dhaqaalaha Turkiga taasoo ay calaamad unoqotay qiimo dhac xoogan oo kuyimi lacagta Turkiga ee Liraha  looyaqaan. Taasi waxay keentay in warbaahida Turkiga iyo tan caalamiga ah, iyo khubarada dhaqaalaha iyo  maaliyadu kabixayaan faalooyin  kaladuwan sababaha keenay calaamadahan xanuunka dhaqaale ee Turkiga lagu arkay,odorosaana meesha  uu jahaysanyahay dhaqaaluhu islamrkaana ay talo soojeedin kabixiyaan siyaabaha  looga hor hortigikaro inaan hargabkan dhaqaale isubedelin hawaarsi dhaqaale.

Sababaha Keena Dhibaatooyinka Dhaqaale(si guud)

Taariikhda marka dib loo raaco waxaa lasoo maray dhibaatooyin  dhaqaalo  oo wejiyo  badan lahaa. Dhibaatooyinkaa dhaqaale  way kaladuwanaayeen markay noqoto taariikhda ay dhaceen,wadamada ay kadhaceen iyo sababaha loo aaneeyay inanay keensadeenba. Guud ahaanse dhibaatooyinkaa dhaqaale ee taariikhdu sumaday waxaynu ukalaqaadikarnaa: (1)Kuwa kadhashay dhibaatooyin baananka lasoodarsay,(2)kuwa ay sababeen qiimaha ascaarta qaar—sida saamiyada,qiimaha dhismayaasha iwl—oo si gacan-kurimisa oo xad-dhaaf ah qiimahoodu kor ugu kacay ama loogu qaaday kadibna si degdega hoose ugusoodhacay,(3)kuwo ay sababeen dhibaatooyin maaliyadeed oo heer caalami ah iyo (4)kuwo ay sababeen dhaqaalaha wadan oo guud ahaan hoos ludhacay.

Dhibaatooyinka Baananku Sababaan(Banking Crisis):  Shaqada ugu way ee baananka lagu yaqaan waa inay bulshada lacagta haysta lacagaha u kaydiyaan  ayagoo marar badan dulsaar siinaya dadyawgaa ay lacagaha ukaydinayaan. Dhanka kale waxay bixiyaan amaaho ay siiyaan dadka ubaahan dhaqaalaha ay ku kabaan shirkadahooda ama  danahooda gaarka ahba.Waxaa dhacda in mararka qaar khalkhal kuyimaado shaqadaa ay baananku qabtaan. Khalkhalkaas oo kadhasha daymo sixun loo maamulay oo lasiiyay dad aan daynta iskabixinkarayn ,ama shaki ay dadka baananka wax dhigtay ay kaqaadaan inay lacagtoodii dib uhelayaan (una maleeyaan in baananku kacayaan) oo sababa in dad badini iskumar layman dhaadheer ugu galaan in  lacagtoodii baananka dib ugalasoobaxaan. Arimahan iyo qaar kaleba waxay sababaan in baananka ay soo waajahaan qalalaase dhaqaale oo mararka qaar sababa in baanan waawayni xidhmaan. Baananka oo keliya kuma ekaatee dhibaatadani waxay saamaysaa sayladaha saamiyada iyo dhaqaalaha guud ahaan. Dawladaha qaar markay arkaan dhibaatooyinka kadhalankala iyo sida dhaqaalaha ay usaamaynkaraan hadii baananka waawayni xidhmaan,waxay iskudayaan inay faragelin maaliyadeed oo toos ah sameeyaan ayagoo ku baanank siinaya lacogo balaayiin ah oo ay iskubadbaadiyaan. Waxaa sidaan samaysay dawlada Maraykanka oo lacago lagu qiyaasay 700 oo bilyan kubixisay samotobixinta baanan ay dhibaato soo faadsaarta kadib qalalaasihii maaliyadeed ee 2008 maraykanka jiidhay dunidana dalal badan oo ka mida gujiyay.

Kor Ukaca Qiimaha Alaabooyinka-Si gacan kurimis ah(speculative bubbles): Sugnaanshaha qiimayaasha alaabooyinku muhiim ayay tahay dhaqaalaha guud ahaan. Mararka qaar waxaa dhacda in shay qiimuhiisu kor ugu kaco ayadoonay  jirin sabobo dhab ah  oo keenay in qiimuhu sidaa ukordho. Waxaa tusaale fiican u ah qiimo korodh  xad-dhaaf ah kuyimaado qiimayaasha guryaha lagu kala iibsado marar badan,qiimo korodh xad-dhaaf ah oo kuyimaada qiimaha saamiyada IWL. Maadaama qiima korodhkaa wayni aanu kusalaysnayn sabo macquul ah ama qiimo asalka shayga oo kordhay,waxaa badiyaa dhacda in qiimuhu si degdega hoos ugusoodhaco. Taasina waxay dhirbaaxo wayn  ugaysataa shirkadihii iyo  ganacsatadii lacagtu kagajirtay hantidaa. Waxaanay keentaa inay shirkado badani kacaan islamarkaana ay saamayn  xoogan kuyeeshaan guud ahaan  dhaqaalaha wadanka arintaasi  ku habsatay.

Dhibaatooyinka Maaliyadeed oo  Heer Caalami ah(International  financial crisis): Marar kale waxaa dhacda in dhibaato maaliyadeed oo wadan kadhacday inay ugudubto wadamo kale oo halkaa xanuun aan xerudhalan ahayni habka maaliyadeed ee wadankaas dool ugu yimaado. Waxaa tusaale fiican inoogu ah dhibaatadii maaliyadeed ee kudhacday wadamada koofurta-Asai badhtamaadkii sanadkii 1997. Dhibaatadaas oo ka bilaabantay wadanka South Kuriya oo lacagtooda qiimadhac xuni kuyimi waxay kufiday wadamadii kale ee Malasiya kamid ahay, markii danbana waxay kufiday wadamada Jayna, Indiya , Raashiy iyo Arjantin. Waxaynu uga jeednaa in dhibaato maaliyadeed  oo wadan kabilaabantay inay suurtagal tahay in ay wadama kale oo xataa ay suurtagal tahay inay qaarado kaladuwan kuyaalaan u gudbikarto islamarkaana dhibaato dhaqaale oo heer caalamiya isubedelikarto.

Hoos Udhac Kuyimaada Dhaqaalaha Guud ee Wadan(wider economic crisis): Waxaa kaloo dhacda in waxsoosaarka wadan uu hoos udhac kuyimaado(Negative Economic Growth) taasoo sababta qulqulatooyin dhaqaale oo isdabajoog ah . Mid kamida hoos udhacaa dhaqaale oo saameeyay dhaqaalaha maraykan gaar ahaan iyo dhaqaalaha dunida si guud ahaaneed wuxuu ahaa hawaarsigii dhaqaale ee 1930nadii kudhuftay maraykanka. Waxaa mar qudha dumay qiimayaashii saamiyada Maraykan,wuxuuna xanuunkan dhaqaale kufaafay wadamo badan oo ay kamid ahaayeen Jarmalka, Faransiiska iyo Ingiriisku.

Dhibaatooyinka Dhaqaalaha Turkiga

Hadii aynu usoonoqono Turkiga,aynu iswaydiino  dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale ee Turkiga kasoomuuqdaa halkay salka kuhayaan?Ayadoo laga bixiyay faalooyin kala duwan markay noqoto sababaha rasmiga ah ee kadanbeeya mashaakilaadkan dhaqaale ee Turkiga hada kajira ama la sadaaliyay, ayaa hadana waxaynu tilmaamikarnaa in dhibaatadani tahay mid maaliyadeed oo salsalaabaysa dhibaatooyinkii maaliyadeed ee wadamadamo badan oo kuwa dhaqaalohoodu sookorayo ah hore ugu dhacday(sida kii kadhacay wadama Koonfurta Aasiya 1997-Classic emerging merket debt crisis). Dhibaatadan maaliyadeed waxay kubilaabantay hoos udhac kuyimi lacagta Turkiga ee liirada looyaqaano. Hoos udhacan kuyimi qiimihii lacagta Turkigu wuxuu cirka ku shareeraray daymihii lagu lahaa Turkiga gaar ahaan shirkadaha waawayn ee Turkiga ka hawlgala. Shirkadahan waxay daymo badan kasooqaateen debada Turkiga,waxaanay dayntaasi ku qiimaysnayd lacagaha qalaad gaar ahaan doolarka Maraykanka.

Kasoo qaad in shirkad kamida ay soodaynsatay 100 dolar. 3 bilood kahor 100 dolar waxaa ka gudaayay lacag wax yar kabadan 400 oo liraha Turkiga ah . Hadase shirkadi si ay 100 dolar isaga bixiso waxay ubaahantahay in kabadan 630 Liro. Arintani waxay keentay werwer ah in shirkado badan ay ku adkaandoonto in ay daymaahaa iskabixiyaan. Waana arintaa ta laga cabsiqabo inay abuurto dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale oo dhirbaaxo kunoqonkara dhaqaalaha Turkiga oo tobaneeyo sano sifiican ukoraayay.

Maxaa Marka Horaba Keenay Qiima Dhaca lirada?

Xiligii qalaalasaha dhaqaale kadhacay dunada ee 2008,waxaa dhacday in wadamadii waawaynaa aad hoos ugu dhigeen qadarka dulsaarka daymaha oo xataa qaar siiro gaadhsiiyeen. Arintaasi waxay fursad unoqotay wadamo badan oo  dhaqaalahoodu soo kobcayo oo Turkiguna kamidyahay. Maalgashadayaal badan ayaa usoojahaystay wadanka Turkiga si ay daymo usiiyaan Turkiga ayagoo doorbidaayeen heerkaa dulsaarka ee sareeya marka labarbardhigo wadamada reer galbeedka ee dhaqaalo xumadu soowajahday.

Kolkii lagasoodoogay dhibaatooyinkii dhaqaale 2008 kudhuftay dunida gaar ahaan Maraykanka,waxaa Maraykanki kor uqaadis kusameeyay xadiga dulsaarka ee daymaha laga bixiyo. Arintani waxay sababtay in lacago badani dib uga qulqulaan wadamo badan oo Turkiguna kamidyahay una jahaystaan xagaa iyo Maraykan. Lacagahaa baxaayay waxay noqonayeen ayagoo dolar ah. Marka baahidii looqabay dolarku badatay tii Liraduna yaraatay waxay keentay in qiimihii lacagta Turkigu hoos udhacdo.

Waxaa iyana jirta in mudooyinkii danbeeyay  qiimaha doolarku kor ukacay si guud caalamka marka loo eego lacagaha kale gaar ahaan kuwa wadamada soo koraya. Arintan waxay xataa kudhacday Somaliland lacagteeda. Qiimahaa kor ukacay ee dolarku asna saamayntiisa ayuu kuleeyahay lacagta Turkiga.

Waxaa ayana aan indhaha laga qarsankarin saamaynta ay yeelatay dhibaatada diblumaasiyadeed ee Maraykanka iyo Turkiga ka dhex aloosan. Waxaa intaa raaca in lagu xamanayo wadamo badan oo reer galbeed ah oo aan ladhacsanayn nidaamka xiligan ee Turkigu inay iskudayayaan inay  dhaqaalahooda u adeegsadaan in Turkiga ku gacan-maroojiyaan. Waxa lasheegayaa inay si ulakaca lacago debada ugasaaraan Turkiga si ay Lirada cadaadis usaaran,ayagoo welibana raacinayo dacaayado ay kafidinayaan xaalada dhaqaalaha Turkiga.

Waxaa ayana  mudan in aan isha laga lalin in dalka  Turkigu sanadihii udanbeeyay koriin dhaqaale oo  kasareeya midka uu awooda uleeyahay(potential growth) dhaqaale kan Turkiga oo kale ahi sameeyay. Waxaa lagu qiyaasaa in dhaqaalaha Turkigu uu awood uleeyahay inuu si caafimaad qabta ukuro ugu badnaan 5%. Waxaase la ogsoonyahay in Tusaale ahaan dhaqaalaha Turkigu uu sanadkii ina dhaafay ee 2017ka sameeyay koriin gaadhaya 7.4%. Si koriinkaa kabadan kii ay awooda ulahayeena ay usameeyana wuxuu  soo qaadtay daymo badan oo badankoodu dolar ku qiimaysnaayeen.

Waxaa markaa la iska garanayaa in dhaqaalaha Turkigu uu ku qasbanyay in  si dabeeciya(oo abuurikarta qalalaase dhaqaale) ama si la maamulay(oo dhaqaalaha badbaadinkarta) ugu soonoqdo koritaanka uu awooda u uleeyahay(potential growth) oo ah meelahaa 5%. Suaashuse waxay tahay sideebuu si nabadgelyo ah ugusoonoqonkaraa koriin ah 5%(safe landing),ayadoon dhaqaalaha dhibaato gaadhin?.

 

Turkigu Siduu Ugafalceliyay?

Dawlada Turkiga ee uu hogaamiyo madaxwayne Erdogan ayaa kutilmaantay hoos kudhaca kuyimi lacagta Lirada “dagaal dhaqaale” oo reer galbeedku kusooqaaday.  Madaxwaynuhu wuxuu shacabkiisa cod dheer ugu sheegay inay kadifaacdaan wadankooda dagaalkan cusub ee dhaqaale ee lagusooqaaday. Wuxuu kubooriyay in cidii dolar haysataa ay Lira ubedalato si looxoojiyo qiimaha lacagta Turkiga ama ugu yaraan halkaa loogu hayo.

Waxa madaxda Turkigu sheegeen in dagaalkan dhaqaale qayb kamida sababtiisu tahay cadaadis dawlada Maraykanku ay kusaarayso Turkiga inay siidaayaan wadaad Kiristaan ah oo in midooyin ah uxidhnaa dawlada Turkiga kuna eedaysan falal argagixiso. Dawlada maraykanku waxay iclaamisay inay xayiraad kusoo ragtay laba wasiir oo kamida dawlada Turkiga. Waxaa kaloo madaxwaynaha Maraykanku kudhawaaqay cashuur kordhin uu kusameeyay Almuniyamka iyo  birta Turkiga lagasoodhoofiyo asagoo sababna ugadhigay in xidhiidhka labada wadan aanay hada wanaagsanayn. Talaabooyinkaa uu maraykanku qaaday waxay markhaati dadban unoqdeen sheegashooyinkii dawlada Turkiga ee ahaa in dalkooda dagaal dhaqaale oo reer galbeed soo maleegay kusocdo.

Qaab Cusub oo Dhaqaale(New Economic Model)

Dhanka kale dawlada Turkigu waxay kudhawaaqtay “qaab cusub oo dhaqaale” oo looga go’leeyahay in lagu waajaho dhibaatooyinkan dhaqaale . Wasiirka Maaliyada Turkiga Berat Albayrak ayaa jimcihii inadhaafay soobandhigay qaabkan cusub ee dhaqaale. Waxyaabaha wasiirku diirada kusaaray  daahfurka uu usameeyay  qaabkan cusub ee dhaqaale  waxaa kamid ahaa inay  kashaqaynayaaan inay hoos udhigaan qiima korodhka ascaarta,yaraynayaan dheeliga ganacsi—dheeliga ganacsigu waa marka lacagta kaasoogeliysa waxyaabaha dalku dhoofiyaa ay aad uga yaraato lacagta dalka ugabaxda waxyaabaha uu soo dhoofsado– ,iyo in isbedek kusamaynayaan qaabka cashuurta dalka. Albeyrak wuxuu sigaara isudultaagay madaxbanaanida baanka dhexe oo beryahan danbe  reer galbeedku ku xamanayeen inuu Erdogan rabo inuu gacan kuyeesho. Wasiirku wuxuu balanqaaday in madaxbanaanida baanku tahay mid lamataabtaan ah.

Xal Mayahay Qaabkan Cusub ee Dhaqaale?

Dawlada Turkigu waxay muujisay in habkan cusubi yahay nidaam si cilmiyaysan loo naqshadeeyeen islamrkaana dhiig cusub kushubaya dhaaqalah Turkiga ee caalamadaha xanuunka lagu arkay bilooyinkii udanbeeyay.

Waxaase jira in khubarada dhaqaalaha kafaalooda qaarkood saluug kamuujiyeen qodobada lagu sheegay “qaabka cusub ee dhaqaalaha. Waxay sheegeen in marka laga tago balanqaadyadaa dawladu kusheegayso inay dhaqaalaha wadadiisa kuhaynayso/kusoocelinayso,inaanay jirin talaabooyin kow iyo laba la odhankaro oo ilaa hada dawladu soo bandhigtay.

Waxay sheegayaan in Turkigu ubaahanyahay in uu heerka dulsaarka kor uqaado si uu  usoojiido lacagaha qalaad kuwa joogana dalka ugu nageeyo. Qaarkoodna waxaabay kuriixayaan in Turkigu uu IMF u gacan haadsado si uu isaga difaaco xanuunkan sansaantiisi soomuuqato islamarkaana uu uhelo lacago daymo ah.

Gunaanad

In kastoo dhibaatooyinka diblimaasiyadeed ee Maraykanka iyo Turkiga kadhaxeeya,godoloolooyin dhaqaalaha Turkiga laftiisa kujira iyo dhibaatooyin caalamiya oo uu  lawadaago wadamo badan oo sookorayaaba ay isbiirsadeen, hadana dhaqaalaha Turkigu wuu xooganyahay,wuxuuna lagamamaarmaan in dawlada Turkigu ay diyaarisa siyaasad iyo  istiraatiijiyad dhaqaale oo waaqici ah oo ay kudifaacikarto dhaqaalaheeda islamar ahaantaana loo abuurilaha  jawi koriinka dhaqaalaha ee imika kasareeya intii dhaqaale kan Turkiga oo kale ahi awooday (overheated economy) loogusoodabaalilahaa heerka saxta ee uu korikaro(potential economic growth) oo ah agaarka 5%.

Waxaase aan ladafirikarin inta wadama sookoraya sida Turkigu ay lacagta dolarka wax kusoodaynsanayaan,debedana dolarka wax kaga soo iibsanayaan dolar inay  marar badan ubandhignaandoonaan dhibaatooyinkan dhaqaale ee kabilaaba lacagta oo hoos udhaca.

Qore: Sayid Gas

Arday cilmiga maaliyada kadhigta jaamacada

Cukurova University,Turkey.

 

Email: sayidgaas3@gmail.com

 

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