Donald Trump Ma Wuxuu Rabaa Inuu Sameeyo Ameerika Cusub? Mr. Nasir Hassan Timoweyne

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Halkan waxaynu si kooban ugu lafao-gureynaa figradaha iyo hadalada Donald Taraam ee wadno dhul gariirka ku rida wadamo, qoomiyado iyo shaqsiyo. Waxaynu ku horeyneynaa maanta hadalkii ka soo yeedhay Donal Taraam ee ku sheegay in ay Gaashaanbuurta NATO ee wadankiisu ka mid yahay ay tahay mid aan wax tar lahayn iyo aamaanidii uu amaanay Ingiriiska ka bixida uu ka baxay midawga yurub, arimahaasoo fajiciso ku noqotay madaxda Yurub ugana jawaabeen si cadho leh.

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        Hadalkani intiinii dhageysaneysa ee siyaasada caalamka u dhuun daloolay iyo duni inteeda kale oo dhan oo waliba uu ku jiro shacabka iyo qaar ka mida madaxdiisa waxay ku noqotay yaab iyo amakaak, waxaana uu mugdi kalay nooca siyaasada arimaha dibada ee mareykanka ee mustaqbalka. Waxa taa ka daran inuu sheegay in ay fiicantahay in Ruushka lala yeesho xidhiidh dhaw. Hadaba halkan waxaan diirada ku saaranynaa sababta ay sidaasi u dhacday taasoo aan ku saleynayno cilmiga political science ka ee aaminsan fikirka Realism theory arintaasoo aan ahyn mid ay layaabaan taa badalkeedana aysii odoroseenba bari hore.

        Sida ay aaminsanyihiin culimada political science ugu waaweyn ee ugu horeeyo John Mearshiermer iyo Kennet Waltz waxa jira wax loo yaqaano danaha strategy yadeed ee ugu waaweyn ee maraykanku leeyahay (America’s core strategic interests ama ACSI) taasoo

isbadasha wakhti ilaa wakhti. Intii u dhaxaysay 1900 – 2000, meelaha uu maraykanku ahmiyadaha ugu waaweyn siiyo waxay kala ahaayeen sidey u kala horeeyaan: 1) Gobolka uu ku yaalo mareykanku (Northern Hamisphere) marwalbana tani waa mida 1aad.  2) Europe 3) Woqooyi-bari Asia 4) Gacanka Persia (Persian Gulf).

        Gobolka uu ku yaalo waxa uu ka ilaaliyaa waligiiba wadan awood leh ilaa iyo hadana uu ku guleystay bal u fiirso wadamada la jaarka ah Canada iyo Maxico. Europe, waa gobolkii ama qaaradii uu ay ka dheceen dagaalada 1 waad iyo 2aad. Way jiraan wadamo awood badan laakiin waxa uu ka ilaaliyaa in midkood xoog bato (great power ama hegemony) oo uu isaga soo gaadho, waxaanu ku ilaaliyaa dheeli tir iyo inay isku awood ahaadaan wadamada halkaas ku yaalaa oo iyagu is hor fadhiyaan si uu kalidii dunida uga taliyo ama u ahaado Hegemony state. Hada taas uu xaqiijiyey.

        Markii la soo gaadhay 2000 wixii ka dambeeyey waxa iskala badalay meelihii uu kalaaha dana ama ACSI. Sidaa darteed  sidan ayey isku badaleen: 2) Woqooyi-bari Asia 3) Gacanka Persia ama bariga dhexe 4) Europe. Woqooy bari Asia, waa halka uu ku yaalo china kaasoo ah awood hada soo kacayso oo uu mareykanku iska eegayo, waana sababta uu usoo faragaliey jasiiradaha ay isku haystaan Japan iyo China ee ku yaalo South china sea. Halkaas ayey arinta ugu xaasaasisan dunida iyo maraykanku ka jirtaa. Persian Gulf waxa weeyi gobol saliida hodanku ah sida wadama Iraq, Iran, Kuwait iwm, maraykankana ahm iyad dhaqaalo oo weyn ayey ugu fadhidaa. Taasi waxay keentay in ay labada gobolba meesha ka saaraan xaga dambena mariyaan Europe.

         Hada lama odhan karo dantii uu kalahaa Europe mareykanku way dhamaatay laakiin waxay soo gashay kaalinta afraad. Waxa dhab ah oo aan qabnaa Realism ahaan Rushku khatar kuma hayo maraykanka xiligan la joogo. Marwalbana waxa lagu dagaalama ardaagiisa, laakiin waxa maraykanka khatar ku haya china oo sida uu socdo uu eeg inuu noqdo maraykanka oo kale. Sidaa darteed Maraykanka waxa u fiican inuu la saaxiibo Rushka si ay iskugu bahaystaan inay is hortaagaan awooda China ee koreysa. Xasuuso sida uu china ula tartamayo marakanka. Maraykanku waxa uu la saaxiibay India, halka chinana uu hada rabo inuu xidhiidh la yeesho Baakista- taasoo 16/01/2017 uu china siiyey2 markab oo kuwa dagaalka ah oo casri ah oo kuwa diyaaradaha xambaara ah. Guntii iyo gabagadii xidhiidhka maraykan iyo Yurub maaha mid fudud oo sidaa ku burbri kara laakiin dantiisa meesha ay gasho ayaa u mihiim ah marakankanka.    

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